Pahalgam attack undermines J&K’s gains in counterterrorism and economic growth

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Between 2018 and 2020, the region saw an annual average of 169 terrorist incidents and 78 deaths among security forces.

Between 2018 and 2020, the region saw an annual average of 169 terrorist incidents and 78 deaths among security forces. | Photo credit: –

The brutal terrorist attack on tourists in Baisaran, Pahalgam, arrives at a time when official data underlines the efforts of the Indian government to restore peace and prosperity in Jammu and Kashmir, marked by an acute detline and six venues. Of 228 attacks in 2018 only two in the first three months of 2024, the fall of about 99 percent had acclaimed as a sign of emerging stability in the region. The impulse of the government for normality is further reflected in the significant reduction of civil casualties and security force, as well as militant activity. The last attack, however, serves as a marked and disturbing reminder of the remaining challenges.

The data from the Ministry of Interior show that 2018 was one of the bloodiest in recent history, with 91 security personnel and 55 civilians killed in 228 terrorist attacks in the region. In marked contrast, no security personnel have lost their lives in terrorist violence in 2024 (until March), and only two civilians have reported dead. The change is not abrupt, but the result of a stable year -on -year decrease in violent incidents and deaths.

Efficient action for security agencies

Between 2018 and 2020, the region saw an annual average of 169 terrorist incidents and 78 deaths among security forces. This period was also marked by an aggressive strategy against terrorism, with approximately 136 annual operations and an average or 211 terrorists killed every year. These numbers began to change significantly in 2021, when the terrorist incidents fell to 129 and continued to fall abruptly in the subsequent years 46 in 2023. The number of operations counter-terror also decreased, briefly, briefly, suggestively, briefly, the Suggy, briefly, for the moment, for the briefly, bills, billboards.

The effectiveness of these operations is visible in improved death relationships. In 2020, almost 1.87 terrorists were killed by each anti -terrorism operation carried out, the largest relationship registered in the data set. Like the number of operations decreased in the subsequent years, the success rate remained relatively high, with 1.52 terrorists neutralized by operation in 2023. This suggests a transition from the reactive commitment to proactive precision in the region’s counter

The number of civil deaths also saw a significant fall. Since 55 in 2018, the number of civil casualties constantly fell to 14 in 2023. This trend stands out not only operational efficiency but also a Heised approach to minimize collateral damage.

Graphic visualization

Economic monitoring

Government’s efforts to stabilize Jammu and Kashmira are also reflected in the economic performance of the region. The compliance with the annual report of the Ministry of Interior by 2023–24, the economy of Jammu and Cashmira remains in a positive trajectory, with the Gross Domestic Product of the State (GSDP) for fiscal year 2023–24 that was projected to grow by 7.4 percent.

The GSDP for 2022–23 (first revised estimate) at current prices is estimated at ₹ 2,24,226 million rupees, compared to ₹ 1.93,352 million rupees in 2021–22 and ₹ 1,67,793 million rupees in 2020–21. The GSDP per capita also has constant growth. It was ₹ 1,25,546 in 2020–21, ₹ 1,43,596 in 2021–22 (Second Revised Estimation) and ₹ 1,65,334 in 2022–23, indicating a constant economic improvement and an increase in income levels in the region.

Experts fear that the terrorist attack can take a break to economic development that would damage the locals.

Sustained or temporary change?

A comparison between the 2018–2020 and 2021–2024 periods shows a big difference in the scale and intensity of violence. The previous period was marked by an average of 169 incidents per year, while the periods of the letter saw that number almost halfway.

Although the data of the first quarter of 2024 only sacrifice a limited vision, the lines of trend in the last six years are unmistakable. The strong decrease in terrorist activity and fatalitions between security forces and civilians suggest that Jammu and Kashmir can be entering a more stable phase. It remains to be seen if this marks a sustained change or a temporary pause, but the data indicators point to a significant reduction in the conflict.

This transformation has had a considerable human cost: 338 security personnel and 225 civilians lost their lives between 2018 and 2023.

Posted on April 23, 2025

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