The American Farm Bureau Federation predicts that this year’s Thanksgiving meal will cost less on average because turkey prices will be lower.
Cranberry costs have decreased by almost 18%.
Thanksgiving food has decreased in price from a year ago, but it is still far more costly than it was prior to the outbreak.
The consumer price index shows that food inflation has been soaring, with prices for food consumed at home up 2.1% in October compared to the same month last year.
But not everything is more expensive.
This year’s Thanksgiving feast won’t break the bank, largely because turkey costs have dropped. The American Farm Bureau Federation reports that the average price of a ten-person supper will be $61.17, which is 4.5% less than the record of $61.17 set last year.
The results are from a study that was carried out between Nov. 1 and Nov. 6, during which members of the agricultural advocacy group looked up pricing at supermarkets throughout all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico.
Prices for almost everything on the Thanksgiving dinner have decreased; for example, cranberries have decreased by 18%. But the turkey, the star of the show, is primarily to blame for the decline. A 16-pound turkey costs $27.35 on average this year, which is 5.6% less than it did last year.
“Consumers who have not yet purchased a turkey may find additional savings in the days leading up to Thanksgiving,” the consumer association stated.
This is particularly good news because costs for turkey increased by 50% between 2020 and 2022, even if they are still 30% more than they were in 2019, before the epidemic, which many people view as the baseline.
Why are the costs of turkeys falling? There is a great deal of supply compared to the amount of demand.
We lost six to seven million turkeys due to avian influenza last year,” said Heidi Diestel of the Diestel Turkey Ranch in Jamestown, California. Her family produces up to 300,000 turkeys annually for affluent consumers who frequent Whole Foods and other specialty stores.
She informed me that portion of her family’s flock was affected by the virus last year as we were speaking this week in one of her barns full of hundreds of enormous tom turkeys, who frequently gobbled in unison.
In order to increase supply, her farm, like many other turkey enterprises, raised a large number of extra turkeys this year. They took this action in case the flu returned. However, so far this year, the avian flu outbreak hasn’t been very serious, so farmers are left with an overabundance of birds. Diestel stated, “Our supply is quite limited.”
Simultaneously, she has found that following a year of high inflation, several supermarket stores have been cautious when ordering turkeys.
“Retailers have definitely been much more conscientious about what they’re purchasing — they’re purchasing a bit more lean —to ensure that they don’t have a lot of leftover,” she stated. “Everyone is trying to cut their costs and operate as efficiently as possible.”
Although profits may be lower, she predicts Diestel Turkey Ranch revenues to be greater this year than they were prior to the pandemic. Feed, for example, is much more expensive now. “Our margin is eroding,” Diestel declared.
Ronnie Lee, a turkey farmer in New Jersey, has made plans in case customers decide to cut back on their purchasing.
“This year we started our turkeys later than we’ve ever started them before, because I’m predicting that the size is just going to be a little smaller than last year,” he claims. “People are starting to feel the pinch.”
One benefit of creating smaller birds, according to Lee, is that they are lighter for workers to handle during processing. That is beneficial since he finds it difficult to hire employees and must pay them more.
“Labor is up, no two ways about it,” he stated. His farm pays its workers at least $20 per hour. However, he continued, “finding people to do it can be difficult.”
Fortunately, at least for customers, the news is all positive. And things might improve. Prices for Turkey may drop even further if supplies keep rising. Although the most recent wave of avian influenza has not had much of an impact, according to Heidi Diestel, merely a hint of the illness might shut off export markets.
She smiled and said, “We may have even more turkeys. Just enjoy turkey dinner more than once a year.”
