With global commercial flows that probably decrease under Trump’s protectionist Policies, countries with large internal markets can be more resistant | Photo credit: Ganesan V
Could India emerge as a surprise winner in Trump’s new world order? It is too early to make firm predictions on how the trade dice launched by Trump will land. But in recent weeks, some world investors have begun to put a new eye on India and put their money on our way.
The markets by nature are volatile, and lately they have been seen. Even so, this week has offered an interesting contrast. In New York on Monday, Dow Jones crashed 3.26 percent in the middle of Trump’s rumors could say goodbye to the Federal Reserve Chief, Jerome Powell. Meanwhile, the Bombay Sesex, which normally takes its Wall Street signals, laptops 865 points, or 1.09 percent. He increased on Tuesday at 169.75 points to extend a commercial demonstration of five days.
That could easily turn around. But the recent influx is not ignored: foreign institutional investors (FII) have pumped almost ₹ 15000 million rupees to Indian markets. A headline captured the mood of cautious optimism: “A wonder of one week or a real reversal for India?”
The optimistic case is based on the history of internal consumption of India. With global commercial flows that probably decrease Trump’s protectionist policies, countries with large internal markets, such as India with their population of 1.4 billion and Brazil with their 215 million, can be more resistant. India resisted both the global financial crisis of 2008-09 and the 1999 Asian financial crisis better than many other economies, thanks to its strong domestic market and its relatively conservative financial sector.
There is also hope that India can take advantage of this moment for a new wave of economic liberalization, reminiscent of the 1991 transforming reforms.
For much of the last 10 years, money has fluid to the United States. But that tide can now be changing, since investors look for the safer and more stable to growth with growth potential. Indian companies focused on the consumer, partly in sectors such as FMCG and digital services, are increasingly attractive. In fact, it is considered that consumer products in Asia are among the safer bets.
Ruchir Sharma, columnist of the Financial TimesHe captured this new mood: “Conventional thinking is when two elephants fight in the jungle, the closest animals are filmed. Not always. Many countries can take advantage of the opportunity created by the superpower conflict to boost national reform.” “
Fanatic Tariff Warriors
India can only expect that to be the case, since Trump has not given the slightest indication that he is about to abandon his global commercial war or reflection to make wilder movements. The Warriors of Fanatic Rates are still inciting it: people like Peter Navarro and Stephen Miran, a staunch nationalist nationalist.
Look, president of what is called the Blanca Economic Advisors Council, wrote a 41 -page trial entitled “A user guide to restructure the global commercial system”, in which tariffs argue that they must be combined with a weak dollar. American business partners, he says, must be convinced to allow the dollar to fall. At the moment, he thought, it seems that the world’s reserve currency is sinking on its own, without other nations having to be persuaded.
Navarro, of course, is the key advisor that Beind the Trade War and, according to the reports, had to be transferred to another part of the record chamber, while Trump’s allies, Howard Lutnick and Scott Besent, convinced the president to allow a 90 -day Bepphore.
Navarro described his ideas in a detailed piece in project 2025, the volume of 950 pages produced by Heritage Foundation, a group of ultra conservative experts that presents a road map for the revolution of the right in the United States. (India is frequently criticized in the document for its high rates).
But then there is a broader danger that even our great market does not protect us. Trump’s protectionist policies could cause a financial crisis reminiscent of the 1929 accident, some analysts fear. As the US economy wobbles and its commercial war increases, the potential of a global recession grows. The world economy, destabilized by aggressive tariffs, runs the risk of looting in depression. Like what happened after the 1929 Wall Street accident.
There are concerns that the way ahead could be disastrous for global markets, particularly given Trump’s erratic nature. India may be better than most to get the storm, if you can maintain the course and make the correct policy movements. Agitation shaking the global order could open for a new era of opportunities.
On the other hand, in a world where chaos is political and unpredictability is the norm, you cannot really consult a really safe market. When Trump rewrites the rules per whim, only the best positioned players can be trapped in the stampede.
Posted on April 22, 2025
