The derivative market shows a cautious perspective, inclined towards the bearish feeling with a significant writing of calls at key resistance levels. | Photo credit:
National markets are expected to open with a slightly Waker note on Wednesday in mixed global signals. The NIFTY gift at 23,280 indicates an opening of the gap or approximately 70 points. The macroconomic numbers were mixed, with the commercial deficit that was cleaned even when the inflation numbers slid. However, analysts expect the market to move in a narrow range before vacation week. The market is closed on Friday due to Good Friday’s holidays. The approach has changed to the performance of the fourth quarter of India Incs and the perspective of the fiscal year26.
The commercial deficit of India was significantly extended to $ 21.54 billion in March, compared to $ 15.34 billion in March 2024. Exports grew to 0.7 percent marginal to $ 41.97 billion, while imports increased one billion, to 11.4 percent to $ 11.4.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist and research and dissemination of the head, ICRA, said: merchandise export data designates the expectations of a frontal load of shipments ahead of proposed tariffs, contributing to a deficit figure of greater hope. “Now we anticipate a current account surplus or $ 1-3 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2015, with a full-year deficit or around 0.9% or GDP.”
Retail inflation, measured by the consumer price index (CPI), significantly decreased to 3.34% in March 2025, marking the lowest annual inflation rate since August 2019.
Mahendra Patil, founder and manager of MP Financial Advisory Services LLP, said: “The 3.61% decrease in February reflects a strong softening in food prices, with the consumer food price index (CFPI) falling to 2.69%, a fall of basic points of 106 over the previous month. This moderation was mainly driven by a decrease in the prices of vegetables, legumes, eggs, cereals and dairy products. Rural inflation saw a remarkable deceleration at 3.25%, while urban inflation remained relatively stable at 3.43%, although with a strong drop in urban food inflation to 2.48%. Regarding the sector, inflation in housing, education and health recorded minor increases, while the fuel and inflation of light became positive at 1.48% after months of contraction. Moderation both in the title and in central inflation strengthens the case of a possible policy rate reduced by the Bank of the Reserve of India in the next few days. With inflation now subject to the target price pressures of 4% of the central bank and central prices, current data underline a favorable macroeconomic environment for monetary flexibility: proven food inflation remains contained and the silenced global risk ”.
Meanwhile, US policy initiatives join volatility, analysts said.
Vikas Gupta, CEO and strategist Head of Investments in Omniscience Capital, in the jump of the market on Tuesday.
“The markets are adjusting the new reality of Trump’s daily turns and turns. As we had mentioned above, there will be continuous ads, other countries, specific companies and their proactive statements and contrary responses. In Intar appears. Tesar appears.
Derived data also present a negative perspective, said F&P experts.
Dhupesh Dhameja, derivative research analyst, Samco Securities, said: Derivative configuration reflects a cautiously pessimistic tone. “The call writers maintained the advantage, eclipsanding the activity of writing and the feeling slightly inclined in favor of the Bears. The strike of 24,000 witness of the written of heavy calls with an open interest of 1.06 million contracts, establishing it a form and formal resistance, a resistance of totalization, aggressive resistance of resistance to the 23,300 strike (1.01 million contracts), which indicates the confidence of the buyer of the buyer close to levels near the levels.
However, India Vix, the reference volatility meter, fell sharply by 19.81% to 16.12, indicating a substantial decrease in market anxiety over geopolitical tensions. “However, with Vix still above the psychological brand 15, merchants should prepare for intra -diameter swings, steep and continuous reversions that do not illuminate the need for disciplined risk management,” Dhameja added.
Meanwhile, the global actions were moderately low in the early agreement, with the Nikkei sliding around 0.50 percent. During the night, US actions closed marginally lower.
Posted on April 16, 2025
