The senior economic officials of the United States and China are ready to meet in Geneva on Saturday for high -risk negotiations that could use the fate of a global economy that has been shaken by President Trump’s trade war.
The meetings, scheduled to continue on Sunday, will be the first since Trump increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 percent and China took reprisals with their own taxes or 125 percent over US goods. The Tit-For-Ote Boquel cash among the largest economies in the world, while raising the possibility of a global economic recession.
While bets for meetings are high, the expectations of an advance that results in a significant reduction in rates are low. He has a week of tasks so that China and the United States even agree to speak, and many analysts expect the discussions of this weekend to revolve around determining what each side wants and how negotiations could move forward.
Even so, the fact that Beijing and Washington are finally speaking has increased hopes that the tension between them can be deactivated and that the rates could finally go down. The impact of the levies is already undulating throughout the global economy, reoring supply chains and causing companies to pass additional costs to consumers.
The negotiations will be closely observed by economists and investors, who fear that an American-China economic war will lead to slower growth and higher prices worldwide. Companies, particularly those that depend on Chinese imports, are also on maximum alert about conversations, since they deal with how to deal with new taxes and uncertainty about whether they will remain in their place.
“Both the United States and China have strong economic and financial interests in the discouragement of their commercial hostilities, but a durable déciento is just off,” said Eswar Prasad, former director of the Chinese division of the International Monetary Fund.
“However,” he added, “represses significant progress that the two parties are at least initiating high -level negotiations, offering the hope that they modify their rhetoric and more withdraw their open host.”
The Trump administration negotiators are being led by the Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, a former coverage fund manager who has said that current tariff levels are unsustainable. Jamieson Gerr, the United States commercial representative, who helped to design the Trump’s first period commercial agenda, which included an “phase 1” agreement with China, will be joined. Trump’s aggressive commercial advisor, Peter Navarro, was not scheduled to participate in the conversations.
He Lifeng, the Vice Prize for China’s Economic Policy Award, leads conversations on behalf of Beijing. The Chinese government has not confirmed who more will be with him at meetings or if Wang Xiaohong, China Public Security Minister, who directs his narcotics control commission, will attend. The participation of Mr. Wang would be a sign that the two parties could discuss. Trump’s concerns about China’s role in helping fentanil to flow to the United States.
The commercial fight has begun to affect the largest economies in the world. On Friday, China reported that its exports to the United States fell 21 percent compared to the previous year in April. Some of the largest American companies have said they have to increase prices to deal with tariffs, remembering Trump’s promise to “end” inflation.
On Friday, Mr. Trump said he was prepared to start reducing tariffs, suggesting that a rate of 80 percent in Chinese imports seemed appropriate. Later in the day, referring to China’s commercial conversations, Trump said: “We have to do a lot for the United States.” Hello, he added that it would not be disappointed if an agreement was not immediately reached, arguing that not doing business is also a good business for the United States.
The president also reiterated that he had suggested to reduce China’s tariffs to 80 percent, adding: “We will see how that works.”
The Trump administration accused China of unfairly subsidizing the key sectors of its economy and flooding the world with cheap goods. The United States has also pressed China to take more aggressive measures to stop exports of precursors for fentanyl, a drug that has killed millions of Americans.
China has been firm in saying that it does not intend to make commercial concessions in response to Trump’s tariffs. The authorities have insisted that the nation participate in conversations at the request of the United States.
“This tariff war was launched on the American side,” said Liu Pegyu, spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington this week. “If the United States really wants a negotiated solution, it should stop making threats and exert pressure, and participate in conversations with China based on equality, mutual respect and mutual benefit.”
A rate of 80 percent, while a large drop of current 145 percent, probably did not close most trade between the country.
China and the United States could take other concrete gestures to help pave the way for future negotiations, other experts said.
An option would be to reduce tariffs to approximately 20 percent, where they were in early April before Trump announced the 34 percent taxes on China’s assets and mutual reprisals occurred, said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies of the University of Fudan in Shanghai.
“If we can return to that stage, then I think it will be a great progress to lead to more constructive negotiations,” Wu said.
He said that China was prepared to talk about fentanil as a separate issue, and added that China had sacrificed to sit with the Trump administration in February after Trump first announced plans to impose tariffs on Chinese products, citing the illegal fentanyl flow to the United States.
The United States and China are gathering near the headquarters of the World Trade Organization, which has abruptly criticized Mr. Trump’s tariff wars. The group has predicted that the continuous division of the global economy in “rival blocks” could make a global gross domestic product in almost 7 percent in the long term, partularly damaging the poorest countries in the world. An WTO spokesman said he thanked the conversations as a step towards decalcalation.
The alternative, a world in which the United States and China no longer participate in trade, could be economically painful and destabilizing. American consumers, who have trusted China’s cheap products, could soon face store shelves and high prices of the remaining products.
The Retail Federation said Friday that import load trafficking in the United States is expected to decrease this year for the first time since 2023, when the problems of the supply chain were persistent and attributed the decrease to Mr. Trump’s rates.
“We are beginning to see the true impact of President Trump’s tariffs on the supply chain,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president of the Federation of the Retail Federation of Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “In the end, these rates will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves.”
The Trump administration has been running to make trade agreements with 17 other important commercial partners after the president’s decision to stop the reciprocal tariffs he announced in April. On Friday, Hey acclaimed a preliminary agreement with Great Britain as evidence that his rate of rate was working.
Economists have had the heart to the heart of the signs that the White House seems ready to reduce tariffs.
“This hurry to demonstrate the progress in ‘Deals’ reveals a growing despair within the administration to reverse tariffs before reaching the growth and inflation of GDP,” wrote Paul Ashworth, head of Capital Economics Economics Economics Economics Economics, in a note to customers. “With the fall in the inconent container ships of China, which increases the fear of imminent shortage in the United States, the pressure is based on the Trump administration to discourage that accumulation of tariffs.”
Capital Economics estimates that if the United States reduced its tariffs to 54 percent, the general effective import rate for the United States would fall to 15 percent of 23 percent. That would put its growth and inflation forecasts again with its estimates at the beginning of this year that were based on Trump’s campaign promises.
It is not clear if Trump would accept a rate rate of 54 percent.
On Friday, he suggested that he was prepared to reduce tariffs to 80 percent as Cool Mr. Bessent the authority to reach an agreement.
“80% of the Chinese rate seems correct! Even Scott B.” Trump wrote in Truth Social, its social networks platform.
Later in the day, his press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said that the 80 percent figure was not an official sacrifice and instead a number “that the president threw.” He added that Trump would not reduce tariffs on China unless Beijing also reduced his taxes.
