A new analysis of the voting patterns in the last elections suggests that the party is not prepared for the way forward.
Any front pivot in American politics generally implies a detailed look back, already measure that the Trump Republican Party lasts the perspectives for the intermediate works of 2026, a new breakdown of the faults of the Democratic Party on the electoral cycle of 2024 has materialized. On Monday, the catalog of the Democratic Police group published its in -depth analysis of the debacle of 2024 postmortem to date. The first -line message of the report can be summarized as follows: massive system failure.
The Democrats had a lower performance compared to the 2020 cycle in almost all significant battlefields, and in almost all relevant demographic groups, according to Catalist. The general participation was remarkable, with 64 percent or eligible voters who cast tickets. In most postwar electoral cycles, high participation has been an advantage for democratic tickets, but the Harris-Walz campaign consistently lost the base between almost all electoral subgroups. In the largest group of this type, the return voters of the previous cycle, the support of Harris fell two points of the Biden exhibition in 2020. And the bad news continues to arrive as it decreases. Harris-Walz lost support among all color voters, with Latin men who fell below 50 percent support for a Democratic ticket for the first time, and saw that color voters already worrisome with color voters.
In addition, the new voters broke against the Democratic Party for the first time within Catalist’s data investigation. Thirty million general electoral voters of 2020 did not return to the polls in 2024, the largest figure of this type in the elections held in the 21st century. Swing voters, before the “irregular” voters broke against the Democratic Ticket, which turned out that the Trump Value Ticket that breaks the seven battlefield states of the 2024 vote. Trump’s First Election Victory in 2016-Continues, But the Party Also Saw National Support Among College-Educated Tunns Dip by Three Bey
If it goes back to 2012, the last time the Democrats spoke with confidence of maintaining a winning national coalition, the numbers are even more sobering. Ruy Teixera Democratic Survey Analyst, which co-author the Hopium-Laaden tract The new emerging democratic majority In 2004, he recently surveyed the collapse of that now Brake electoral mirage for his newsletter The Democratic strategist. Among the voters of the non -white working class (that is, not educated at the university), he writes: “Obama cleaned … carrying them by 64 points in 2012. In the 2024 elections, the margin was reduced to 32 points, Cut exactly the 2012 democratic advantage in half. “The Hispanic part of the delivery of non-university education saw the most steep fall, with an enormous Obama advantage of 38 points in 2012 that was reduced to a Pro-Six-Sharris margin. Five points. Five points, while Harris’s male deficit was more than triple that, 16 points.It is completely attributable to the Democrats who are worse among menDo not do better among women. ” [Emphasis in original]
The integral breakdown provided by the catalyst confirms what is already painfully obvious for anyone who follows the recent misfortunes of the Democratic Party: their Woos will not be remedied by a demographic group or the economic region of the easily adjusted finger. No, the party is in the midst of a mass credibility crisis with the American election, with key groups once labeled as pillars of a future defect of the democratic government coalition in significant amounts.
Of course, the Republican party does not really preside to an unconditional majority in creation; As the Catalista report points out, the signing of the party wins in the 2024 cycle, between men aged 18 to 29, and with Latin and black men, may include voters who probably do not become supporters of the long -term republican party. When pointing to the voters of “Low Propensity”, Trump’s electoral team brought together its first national majority, but this group of mother rock by definition is prone to suspend or change their political loyalties under changing economic and cultural conditions. However, despite the electoral vulnerabilities of the ongoing Republican Party, there is no doubt that the Democrats are in a loss of incorporation to produce an effective counter -moralization strategy to reverse their own perspectives of marking. The case to preserve the institutional safeguards of American democracy against the attack of a Maga authoritarian movement has greatly fallen into the flat axis, Trump’s multifront criminal prosecution, like any effort to advertise the mass appeal project grouped in the project.
Current problem
At the same time, however, the data analysis of an expired election only adds to an incomplete description of the behavior of national policy, which after all refers to both the elaboration of narratives and in mass persuasion campaigns. That is why, at the end of its brilliant roll of voting reversions, the Catalaist team writes that “so that the Democrats ensure a victory, they simultaneously need (1) to convince a part of the relatively high participation” Jotehythehthall of the voters “Jotehythall Lean Democratic but that they have an inconsistent participation in the elections”.
To have a broader sensation of new political opportunities that significant democratic leaders and candidates, it can alternate a new Axios Report on how the Republican Party led by Trump is already trying to defend against losses in the crucials of 2026 parcias. The Trump Super Pac, ensuring the American greatness, is already joining its multimillionaire war chest in the ads that promote the president’s economic agenda in the districts of eight Magmags vulnerable of the Republican Party of the House of Representatives of the Chamber of Representatives of Cadrina Tresión travada through its circuit circuit circuit circuit circuit circulated. As a veteran or two previous judgments, Trump “knows first -hand bets,” said the former campaign of the Republican Party Matt Gorman campaign. “Research, accusation: Het knows that everything is on the table with a speaker [Hakeem] Jeffries ”
It is a good general rule, when a political opponent moves preventively to close a source of narration that shapes political power, to consequently intensify its own efforts in the same direction. However, Democratic leaders in the hill have moved with an efficient office to reduce the political trial resolutions offered by Michigan Shri Thanedar representative, and to put aside one of Thanedar’s most ecological representatives. And while the party has presented many outraged statements about the blatant corruption sanctioned under Trump’s second mandate, in things like his love offers for Elon Musk and the gift of $ 400 million of a new One Avine Air Force of the law of Qatares, strengthening one of Trump’s own main tributaries or a harmful corruption. Given the collapse far from the unrelated collapse of the Democrats of Congress before the Xenophobic and Degomic Law LaEken Riley, and given the ignominious surrender of the leader of the majority of the Chuck Schumer Senate during the border of the government’s aversion, the acatiature limited the limited power they now have in the face of an authoritarian regime. Is it surprising that voters in general consider Democrats as prosecutors not worthy of public interest?
The same criticism remains in the crucial affairs of income inequality and political economy, which is a Harris campaign with corporate commitments could not be synthesized in an effective message or the popism left. Now that Republicans have promulgated, through their prosecutor’s bill and immigration state, the greatest ascending distribution of wealth caused by any piece of legilation in US history, a serious popular one cannot avoid. In fact, the critical presenter of that 2012 Obama campaign was Obama’s own decision, against the lawyer of his main campaign advisor, David Axelrod, to rescue the American industry that floats. That decision provided the basic of the “Blue Firewall” or the states of the upper west that assured the re -election of Obama, and the non -sense of Hilllary Clinton of that same Firewall helped its electoral fatality four years later.
At this time, the economic populist flank of the party, as the cause of Trump’s political trial, has been assumed by insurgent figures: mainly senator Bernie Sanders and representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who have been making a series of male manifestations against the US oligarchy that is attracting huge Crowds in many locations of the black states. But party leaders cannot generally be counted to be the same organization opportunities and members of the Democrats indolent consulting class have the discomfort that they publicly cry against the Tondita for the Tondita for the Tondita for the Tondita for the worshiper clamor? It has been systematically alienating since 2012. In other words, the Democrats continue, against all the evidence given by an electoral anti-status quo electorate, to position themselves as the sclerotic and hidden defenders of the status quo. And this resistance to change of the entire system continues with the path of the next total system failure.
