Taipei, Taiwan – As the president of the United States, Donald Trump, plays with the prospects for a commercial agreement with China, experts say that Beijing is unlikely to make the first movement and even demand previous conditions before reaching the negotiating table.
Trump has said that he hopes to see 145 percent of the China “fall substantial” rate, but that a lower rate would branch into Beijing’s next steps.
“We are going to have a fair deal with China,” Trump told journalists on Wednesday in his latest comments, moving hopes of a display in tensions between the sides.
But given the high bets in confrontation with the United States, China “cannot afford the side of the first movement that cannot be seen as a captain for the Trump administration pressure campaign,” William Yang, As
“As a result, China will firmly maintain its current position until you see the United States government make some credible concessions that can allow Beijing to consider reaching the negotiation table and claim victory.”
Beijing can even see Trump’s most optimistic rhetoric as a sign that “digging in its heels” is working, Yang said.
American and Chinese officials have not formally announced the start of trade negotiations, although Trump said Wednesday that his administration was “actively” with the Chinese side, without elaborating.
On Thursday, the China Ministry of Commerce rejected Trump’s comments, saying that there were no conversations about trade between the sides.
“Any statement about the progress of the economic and commercial negotiations of China-United States has no basis and does not have a factual basic,” said the ministry spokesman Yadong, to a press conference.
China has said that the door is “open” to conversations, but insisted that it will not refer to a fight with the United States if necessary.
In contrast to Trump’s comments outside of strength and hesitant statements about the possibility of relief of their tariffs, Beijing’s messages, which has been largely communicated through the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Accounting Configuration Configuration.
“I would say that, at least on the surface, China has the advantage,” Zhiwu Chen, a professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong’s University, told Al Jazeera.
“It is more in control, while President Trump and Secretary Besent have signaling and doing things that help his hand even more,” Chen said, referring to the United States Secretary of the United States, Scott Besent.
“I think the statement really shows that it is anxious and panic, while China has quite calm and silenced bone,” Chen added, referring to Trump’s comments that he intends to make tariffs at some point.
China has slapped US exports with a 125 percent tariff in response to Trump’s commercial except, as well as announcing several other “countermeasures”, including restrictions on rare earth exports and the limits of the film relieve in China.
If continuous tensions intensify, Beijing could stop cooperation in problems such as control of fentanyl exports.
In theory, it could also inflict pain to the economy of the United States by downloading, it is more than $ 760 billion in the debt of the United States government, a movement that economists consider unlikely that it also has serious ramifications for the Chinese economy.
Unlike Trump, who prefers to negotiate face to face with world leaders, Beijing will do so because to participate in preliminary meetings before any meeting of Chinese President Xi Jinping and the president of the United States, Tom Nunlist, associate director of technology and data said.
“They will seek to have ensured an agreement before the main leaders meet to confirm it. Reaching Trump Direct may seem that XI is giving in to the pressure of the United States, and risks to fail,” Nunlist told Al Jazeera.
“Generally he speaks, the United States is the aggressor here, and China has calibrated its answer to be overwhelming but avoid climbing,” Nunlist said.
It is likely that discussions address a broader range of concerns than only tariffs, according to analysts, especially now that Trump seems to have fastened first in the confrontation.
Potential areas for concessions include “technological export controls and Taiwan,” according to Dingli Shen, a Shanghai -based international relations scholar.
“Long data complaints about how China is treated within the global system” could be on the table, Childhood to Marina Zhang, an associated professor at the Australia-China Relations Institute of Sydney’s University of Technology.
“In practice, it means that there is no public humiliation, there is no unilateral ultimatums, and there are no commitments in four key ‘red lines’: issues related to Taiwan, democracy and human rights, the political system of China and its right”, “
Zhang said the US export controls on critical technology could be on the agenda, as well as in the blacklist of Chinese technology companies such as Huawei and Chinese manufacturer of SMIC chips.
“China can also press for the relaxation of investment detection rules, particularly in sensitive sectors such as semiconductors, clean energy and advanced manufacturing. Another offer is probably a degree of rediscation,” he said.
“While Beijing does not expect complete concessions, I would welcome the less open political firm of Washington as limits in high -level official visits and weapons sales.”
For Beijing, the wait could be Dereh while it means achieving some of its objectives in the longest, the Yang said of the international crisis group.
“This is more than a pure commercial negotiation for China at this point. He sees the trajectory of this tariff confrontation as a precursor to how bilateral relations with the United States will develop in the next four years,” he said.
“Beijing will want to see that the Trump administration performs the first movement to reduce tariffs imposed on imported Chinese products. The level of potential tariff reduction could potentially determine the disposition of the Chinese government to begin the commercial trade commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial.” “
